[ZNPaaneah]

Originally Posted by Ohio

MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.

This is a misunderstanding of the science. Climate change should not be observed based on temperature rise. This is why the term "climate change" has replaced "Global warming". The reason is the same as why ice tea does not get warmer during a hot summer day. Is it "warming"? Technically, no. What is really happening is that the ice is melting. Once the ice melts, then it will warm up very quickly.

Originally Posted by Ohio

MYTH 2: The "hockey stick" graph proves that the earth has experienced a steady, very gradual temperature decrease for 1000 years, then recently began a sudden increase.
FACT: Significant changes in climate have continually occurred throughout geologic time.

This also is true, but ignoring this is a valid approach since the vast majority of Americans don't understand anything about science and this would just confuse the matter. First, we have a 30,000 year cycle where the Earth gets closer to and then further from the Sun. As a result there is a cycle of warming and cooling. We also have sun spots and other anomalies which can cause short term swings. We also have volcanic eruptions which can have a very big short term effect. None of those natural cycles and events explains what we are witnessing.

Yes, it is true that this has happened before in the geologic record. During the Permian extinction we hit CO2 levels similar to today. Of course we also saw the extinction of 95% of all species on Earth and we saw vast amounts of the ocean evaporate so that the sea floor was exposed to the atmosphere.

Another similarity between today and the Permian extinction is the escape of methane hydrates into the atmosphere. This is an incredibly damaging feedback loop to the CO2 cycle (if you need an analogy to a "feedback loop" it is water rushing into a boat, as more water rushes in, the boat sinks, allowing for more water to rush in).

Originally Posted by Ohio

MYTH 3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus causing most of the earth's warming of the last 100 years.
FACT: Carbon dioxide levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human and otherwise, just as they have throughout geologic time. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased by about 120 part per million (ppm), most of which is likely due to human-caused CO2 emissions. The RATE of growth during this century has been about 0.55%/year. However, there is no proof that CO2 is the main driver of global warming. As measured in ice cores dated over many thousands of years, CO2 levels move up and down AFTER the temperature has done so, and thus are the RESULT OF, NOT THE CAUSE of warming. Geological field work in recent sediments confirms this causal relationship. There is solid evidence that, as temperatures move up and down naturally and cyclically through solar radiation, orbital and galactic influences, the warming surface layers of the earth's oceans expel more CO2 as a result.

This doesn't make a concern over the greenhouse effect of CO2 a myth. It just means that there are many factors that affect temperature. For example, Mt. Pinatubo's eruption caused a short term cooling.

Originally Posted by Ohio

MYTH 4: CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas.
FACT: Greenhouse gases form about 3% of the atmosphere by volume. They consist of varying amounts, (about 97%) of water vapour and clouds, with the remainder being gases like CO2, CH4, Ozone and N2O, of which carbon dioxide is the largest amount. Hence, CO2 constitutes about 0.04% of the atmosphere. While the minor gases are more effective as "greenhouse agents" than water vapour and clouds, the latter are overwhelming the effect by their sheer volume and – in the end – are thought to be responsible for 75% of the "Greenhouse effect". (See here) At current concentrations, a 3% change of water vapour in the atmosphere would have the same effect as a 100% change in CO2.
Those attributing climate change to CO2 rarely mention these important facts.

Three major greenhouse gases: CO2, Water vapor and Methane.

1. CO2 is an emission from fossil fuel which we have been burning since the beginning of the industrial age and have been measuring it accurately for over 60 years. It is increasing to very high levels on any scale, even geologic scales of hundreds of millions of years.

2. Water Vapor will increase in the air along with temperature. So it creates a feedback loop. As the temperature rises, we will get more water vapor from the ocean evaporating which in turn will help the temperature rise.

3. Methane is perhaps the most powerful greenhouse gas, 100 times more powerful than CO2. McDonald's has done an extraordinary job of changing the diet of this planet and pumping Methane gas into the atmosphere as a result. There is a double whammy, in order to raise the cows for their hamburgers they are cutting down rain forests which act as a carbon sink.

Originally Posted by Ohio

MYTH 5: Computer models verify that CO2 increases will cause significant global warming.
FACT: The computer models assume that CO2 is the primary climate driver, and that the Sun has an insignificant effect on climate. Using the output of a model to verify its initial assumption is committing the logical fallacy of circular reasoning. Computer models can be made to roughly match the 20th century temperature rise by adjusting many input parameters and using strong positive feedbacks. They do not "prove" anything. Also, computer models predicting global warming are incapable of properly including the effects of the sun, cosmic rays and the clouds. The sun is a major cause of temperature variation on the earth surface as its received radiation changes all the time, This happens largely in cyclical fashion. The number and the lengths in time of sunspots can be correlated very closely with average temperatures on earth, e.g. the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Varying intensity of solar heat radiation affects the surface temperature of the oceans and the currents. Warmer ocean water expels gases, some of which are CO2. Solar radiation interferes with the cosmic ray flux, thus influencing the amount ionized nuclei which control cloud cover.

Computer models are very effective way to learn about climate, not just the factors which we already know, but how they interact and how each should be weighted. Using prediction is an excellent way to improve the science and working backward is also a good way (we have the data for the last 60 years. Make your model, plug it in for 1970 and see if it predicts the last 50 years).

Since there are many different models, just as there are for predicting a hurricane, we often find the best result from the average of the models.

Originally Posted by Ohio

MYTH 6: The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proven that man–made CO2 causes global warming.
FACT: In a 1996 report by the UN on global warming, two statements were deleted from the final draft approved and accepted by a panel of scientists. Here they are:
1) “None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases.”
2) “No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change to man–made causes”
To the present day there is still no scientific proof that man-made CO2 causes significant global warming.

That study is 20 years old and it emphasized the need for "proof". Since then the climate change in Syria and a few other countries is ascribed to climate change, at least as one of the factors.